26 October 2022
What does "prepare" mean when a series of catastrophes are coming at us?
Right now, we are in the start of an economic collapse. What that means is that current economic activity -- the exchange of goods and services -- will slow down. Some of it will stop altogether, but the entire economy isn't going to freeze up where you are simply on your own individually as a hunter-gatherer. Things that come from far away will stop coming, but the same basic market demands won't simply go away. Thus, people will shift rather quickly to local sources for however much is possible to keep up with what they are used to. But some of the most mundane things will suddenly become expensive luxuries. It takes a very long time for people to change their habits, but eventually those will reshape economic expectations, and life will go on.
So, you need a stock of things you consume now so that you can ride out the changes. We've already seen some of them. Inflation has hit and the biggest issue is fuel prices alongside the loss of certain sources. For example, your Thanksgiving turkey may not be available at all, or it may come at a very high price, because an awful lot of turkeys have been culled from the CAFOs due to variations of bird flu. Beef is about double the price it was just a few months ago, and it seems only pork is still reasonable, at least where I live.
You'll need to keep an eye out for ways to reduce fuel consumption. If you buy a bike, for example, make sure you grab an extra tire and a couple of tubes, because they could disappear from the shelves suddenly, and they won't be back. If money is tight, plan to buy later things you know you'll need in the long run. I have a plan to order upgrades on parts for my bike. Do what you can with what you have now and be ready for the worst, because when something stops coming, the supply may not come back for a year or more. Some items will never come back. Food is most likely to be available, in a mix and at prices that may be unpleasant, but food is too high of a priority to simply stop being there. Fuel will simply go up in price, so you have to prioritize how you use it.
Farther out, any income based on the US federal budget could simply disappear. Federal disability, Social Security, etc. are at high risk of ending suddenly because of the political instability. Given what we see in history, there's a tendency for such a complex system of government to simply stop suddenly. It depends on the process of how the centralized control starts to fragment, but some states may step up to replace those programs. Still, don't count on it.
At the same time, anywhere in the next two years there is a very high probability of a Carrington Event that will take us all back to living as folks did up to about the time of the Civil War. Everything will be powered by hand, animals, water and wind, etc. Almost everything that requires electricity will simply not be there. It would require a very long lead time before people could rebuild anything that would restore any semblance of mass production. Electricity will eventually come back online, but our capacity to replace what gets fried (mostly transformers) rests on having electricity in the first place. The generators won't be destroyed, but the distribution of power is what will suffer. We can pray technicians are smart enough to shut down the grid during the lapse between the flare and the CME, because that will reduce by far the sensitivity of the transmission equipment.
Meanwhile, it's a very good time to get used to living without electrical power. Within 20 years after that comes the solar micro-nova and it's all over. Civilization itself will end. You'll have to form small communities that can build a survival strategy for something like the Stone Age.
What effect does knowing all that have on your priorities? What can you do that would allow you to live through that series of events? And what kind of mental preparation does that call for? This is an exercise for which you will need a lot of time in prayer.
In my case, the gospel mission remains the number one priority regardless. Knowing these events are coming allows me to keep the focus where it belongs. Whatever I believe I'll need to continue the ministry work is where I'll invest my resources. Because I can't function without writing stuff down, I've bought an old manual typewriter and paper, plus notebooks and pencils. That's how I did it back in college, and that's how I'll end, most likely. I've already begun printing off stuff I don't want to loose, and I've reduced my reliance on computers for personal record keeping.
Take some time to assess what really matters in your obedience to Covenant and conviction.
Note: Hat-tip to Jay DiNitto for the link to that video on CMEs and flares.
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